Inflation is a measure of rise in general price levels of goods and services. Inflation is measured by taking a set of goods and services, and then the prices of the items in the set are compared to prices one time period ago.
In India, inflation is measured based on the wholesale price index (WPI) which measures the change in prices of a selection of goods at wholesale prices. Inflation is primarily of two types - inflation due to cost push and inflation due to demand pull (supply side). Cost push inflation is due to rise in costs of input materials or labour, whereas demand pull inflation is due to increase in demand beyond installed capacity.
Controlled inflation is good for the economy as it increases motivation levels of people. The government, in consultation with the Reserve Bank of India, decides the inflation threshold in the country (current inflation threshold range in India is 4-5 per cent). The inflation target is one of the key parameters that go into determining fiscal and monetary policies.
Inflation went up quite a bit in the beginning of last year (around seven percent) on the back of high liquidity in the markets (huge funds inflows in the form of FII and FDI). The RBI controlled inflation by tightening the monetary policy (raising cash reserve ratio and interest rates) and letting the rupee appreciate against foreign currencies. Inflation came well within the control limits in the second half of last year. However, inflation is going up again this year from the last few weeks. Last week, it has gone above 6.5 percent. The reasons of rising inflation this time are quite different from those last year.
Here are some of the main reasons behind rising inflation:
Price rise of essential commodities
The prices of the basic commodities - milk, vegetables, cereals, dairy products, cement, steel, edible oil etc - have gone up quite significantly, especially in the last few weeks. This is due to supply concerns. There is fear in the market that the supply of basic commodities is not increasing in proportion to population growth. This has triggered a wave of speculation in commodities and hence the prices are going up rapidly.
Commodity prices rise at global level
Rise in commodity prices at the global level is another factor that contributes to higher inflation in the country. The correction in global stock market resulted in a rise of commodity prices all over the world as investors are using commodities, especially precious metals, to hedge their risk.
Rising oil prices
Crude oil prices have gone up significantly in the last few weeks. Although the government is controlling fuel prices in the country, rising crude oil prices plays a crucial role in general price rise.
Increasing demand
India's economy is growing at around 7-8 per cent per annum over the last few years. The per capita income levels have gone up and as a result, the demand for many commodities has increased significantly.
Basically, inflation does not have any direct relation to a fall or rise in the stock markets in the short term. However, when inflation goes up beyond the comfortable limit of the RBI and government, they take some strong policy measures such as tightening of monetary policies, regulatory controls, subsidy etc.
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Links to important NEWS for newcomers
- View on IT stocks: in the neutral gear.
- View on Banking sector.
- Rising inflation, CRR hike fears haunt markets.
- RIL, ONGC in Forbes' top global firms list.
- SEBI allows institutional clients to have direct market access.
- BSE, NSE fix new circuit filter limits,
- Govt unveils measures to fight inflation,
- BSE to launch Sensex futures on US bourse: Report.
- On-road price tag for Jaguar & Land Rover runs to $3 bn
- Inflation continues to be of concern: RBI.
- FIIs give the thumbs down to SEBI’s margin call.
- Stay invested in blue chips !!!.
- Govt to dilute 5% stake in mini-ratna companies.
- Partnerships in telecom industry !!!
- RBI lets 2 Singapore banks open account in India.
- Deutsche Bank top FII in India, Bear Stearns comes at 10th spot.
- Indian IT services market to grow at 18.6%.
- Govt says no to curb film piracy with policy.
- Brokerages exit low-rung stocks.
- 6th Pay Commission to see pay hikes by 40% .
- Promoters of small & mid cap firms take advantage of market meltdown.
- How to pick dividend stocks in a troubled market.
- Sensex turning sexier for women investors?
- Sensex at 19K by year-end: Brokers.
- Inflation rises to 11-month high of 5.92%.
Grey Market, IPO"s and Related news
- Sita Shree lists at Rs30 on BSE
- SEBI for strengthening Know Your Customer norms
- Sebi begins review of public issue norms
- BPCL-Oman Oil JV files DRHP with SEBI
- Kiri Dyes IPO swims against the tide
- Sulekha.com plans IPO next year.
- Indiareit fund advisors to raise $700 mn
- IPO grading: Back to basics
- IPO close and listing gap may be cut to 3-5 days
- NHPC IPO likely in July-August
- Reliance Life Insurance launches Reliance Wealth + Health Plan
- Future Venture Files DRHP With SEBI: Plans To Raise Rs. 3736 Crore Through IPO
- Sebi nod for Indiabulls' MF business
- MCX to enter global league with IPO
- Rs 250 crore stuck in Grey Market
- Pipavav shipyard the Next IPO ahead !!!
- IPO Mkt now in deep Freeze !!!!
- Does SEBI have control over IPO pricing ?
- Greed is bad for IPO - gain hunters
- How does Grey market really work ?
- Reliance Entertainment plans IPO !!!
- SEBI put IPO deals under scan !!!
- Anatomy of Grey Market
- Reliance Infratel : another new IPO ahead
- Fm plans minimum 25% stake to IPO's for Retail investors
Latest & Recent News Related to Market
- RCom forms JV in Sri Lanka.
- Satyam to invest Rs 250 cr to open 104 screens by 2010.
- Lanco to invest Rs 18,000 cr for hydro power.
- Bacardi eyes stake in Mallya company.
- Reliance plans rig building foray.
- ICICI Bank introduces `Global Indian Account`
- SEBI bans Bellary Steel, three others for five years.
- Reliance Industries To Set Up Two Manufacturing Facilities.
- Reliance Energy spends Rs 220 cr to buy-back.
- BHEL net profit up 17%; turnover tops Rs 20,000 cr.
- Reliance to foray into semi-conductors business.
- Videocon bids for Motorola's mobile handset biz,
- Parekh had major role in GTB's closure,
- Infy, TCS among 1,000 to lose mkt wealth in FY'08.
- Four Soft, Take Solutions merger on cards.
- Reliance Energy buys back 6.5 lakh shares.
- Investors concerned about Tata Motors deal.
- Tata Motors buys Jaguar, Land Rover from Ford for 2.3 bln usd.
- Religare to acquire UK broking co for $100 million.
- Infosys Technologies to announce financial results.
- Reliance Industries to shut its retail petrol pumps.
- Overseas initiative generates interest in SBI.
- Gujarat plans mini-hydro power projects.
- Jyoti Structures bags 2 orders worth Rs 253cr.
- Nortel bags Rs 400 cr contract from BSNL.
Monday, 7 April 2008
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- U can see my past given quotes for the stocks mentioned for that day, almost all the stocks hit the target mentioned by me and u can verify those stocks also.
- U can also comment on the stocks mentioned by me.
- Keep in track with this site so that last minute changes are also possible depending on the stock market and related news.
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