F&O Outlook: Downtrend to continue

The Nifty broke all crucial support levels on Friday as a result of weak global markets and a fresh assault from the bears.

The fall on Monday and again on Friday not only wiped out market capitalisation worth Rs 6.18 lakh crore on BSE, but also pushed the Sensex and the Nifty to their biggest-ever weekly decline.

A break of the crucial support for the Nifty at 4,800 on Friday indicates a continuation of the downtrend next week. The manner in which the index will come down in coming weeks will indicate whether new lows are made or not, says technical analyst Kamalesh Langote of vfmdirect.com.

The Nifty had touched the recent low of 4,449 on January 22 and hence it will act as the next support level in case markets come down. The Sensex will similarly find support at the recent low (January 22) of 15,332, says the analyst.

According to a technical analyst at Asit C Mehta, any breach of the previous low at 4,448 will extend the cyclical bear market and may lead to a further correction, going forward. Any breach of 4,002 will change the cyclical bear market into a structural bear market, says Suresh Kumar Iyer, an analyst at Asit C Mehta.

The weakness in markets is also indicated by key Nifty heavyweights that are currently trading below the Fibonacci price projection level of 161.8 per cent of the recent swing in their highs and lows. The next downside stop, according to the Fibonacci price projection level, is at 261.8 per cent from the recent highs.

Nifty heavyweight Reliance Industries closed at 2,248.25 on Friday, which is below its 161.8 per cent downside price projection level of Rs 2,269. The next downside level for Reliance is Rs 2,041, which is 261.8 per cent downside price projection level. ICICI Bank closed at Rs 893.40 last week, which is below its 161.8 per cent level of Rs 964 and hence the 261.8 per cent downside target for the bank is at Rs 824.